Circumcision Reduces Risk of HIV Infection

A study published in 2005 concluded that circumcision reduced HIV infection risk in heterosexual men by about 60%, according to the BBC. That’s not all. The boffins who conducted the study also made a mathematical model where the programmed scenario is that over the next 10 years, all men in sub-Saharan Africa were circumcised. The output is quoted below:

They calculated that within a decade some two million new HIV infections and 300,000 deaths could be prevented. And in the ten years after that, a further 3.7 million infections and 2.7 million deaths could be avoided – with one in four of the deaths prevented being in South Africa.

Interesting… What’s your take on this finding?

2 responses to “Circumcision Reduces Risk of HIV Infection”.

  1. Brandon Says:

    it would be great to prevent so deaths!

  2. Commentator Says:

    I am very concerned that this flawed study may lead to millions of africans being misled into believing that having themselves mutilated will reduce their vulnerability to aids.

    I have examined the original study and it commits the cardinal error of assuming that because two things occur together, one must be causing the other.

    The relationship is almost certainly tied to geography, and hence to variations in cultural practice.

    Put simply, the data shows that Aids increases as you go south, whilst circumcision decreases as you go south.

    These two trends could be caused by any number of causes. Examples are – climate, missionary penetration, geographical spreading of disease or cultural practice over time from an original source.

    If there being circumcised actually reduced aids risk, the effect should not disappear if we group countries from the same geographical area together. Follow the link. Look at the graph yourself. Within each country group there is no effect at all. It is a North-South effect and disappears when we group contries from similar areas.

    What this means is that circumcising more africans will not reduce Aids incidence at all.

    To tell them the opposite, and persuade them to mutilate themselves, would be little short of a crime.